TV ads headed for hard times, online & digital will do okThe outlook for the global TV advertising market is sluggish growth to 2009 - but with some improvement, particularly online, from 2010 to 2012, as TV audiences continue to fragment and online advertising takes a greater share of marketing budgets, according to research from Screen Digest, MarketingCharts reports. Below, some of the findings released by Screen Digest. Outlook for 2008/2009
- 2008 will be a difficult year for TV advertising, with spend growing at a lower rate than the economy: that is, just 1.9 percent in Europe and 1.5 percent in the US.
- However, TV advertising revenues will enjoy a boost from key events that happen only every four years, including the Beijing Olympics, the European football championship and the US elections.
- Though those events will help avoid a recession for TV ad revenues in '08 by neutralizing the effect of the slowing economy, their effect will be temporary.
- By 2009, a fragile advertising environment will have been created, with marketing budgets being slashed, especially in the US:
- Advertising revenues will grow below average GDP growth between 2008-2012, with annual growth rates of 3.6 percent in Europe and 3.7 percent in the US.
- The growth rate in 2011-2012 will be higher - at 5 percent in Europe and 6 percent in the US - as the economy picks up after 2008/2009.
- Most of that growth will come from online advertising, which is expected to grow on average 17 percent every year until 2012.
- By 2012, advertising will be a three-tier market, with online at the top, TV in the middle and other traditional media bringing up the rear.
- Online advertising, when both search and display are combined, will have enjoyed double-digit growth every year to 2012.
- TV advertising will have retained its 2007 market share, but the traditional broadcast channels will have seen their share of the ad budgets slipping; the research contrasts the growth rate of the European traditional channels of up to 2 percent per year, with the digital channels that are expected to experience advertising growth rates of 20 percent per annum.
- Rather than increasing overall spending, companies will cut into their traditional media advertising budgets to divert the money to online and digital TV.
- As a result, traditional media will suffer a decline in budgets - particularly print and radio, as well as cinema campaigns.
- Minimizing the impact for outdoor and cinema will be technological advances, in terms of digital signage for outdoor advertising and the introduction of digital screens in cinemas.
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