Carat Upgrades UK and Global Adspend Forecasts

China is expected to rebound strongly with a rise of 16.1 per cent along with Indonesia, up 15.8 per cent, Brazil up 11.6 per cent and Turkey, up 13.5 per cent.

However, Japan is expected to fall 3.1%, along with Germany (-2.6 per cent) and Spain (-2 per cent).

All media are expected to return to growth in 2010, apart from newspapers and magazines.

The TV market, which fell 4.8 per cent last year, will see the highest share of the spend at 45.2 per cent, with global growth of 6 per cent in 2010. Its growth is predicted to continue in 2011 at 6.1 per cent.

Newspapers will have the second highest share of spend in 2010 at 20.3 per cent, according to Carat, despite a predicted ad revenue fall of 2.9 per cent. The decline is expected to slow in 2011 at -0.7 per cent.

Online sees the most growth at 10.1 per cent in 2010 with a rise of 9.1 per cent forecast for next year.

Magazines, which were the worst hit last year with a fall of 20.2 per cent, will see a drop of 3.9 per cent in 2010 but a slight rise of 0.8 per cent in 2011. Radio, which dropped 10.6 per cent last year, is forecast to be up 2.3 per cent this year and 0.9 per cent next year.

Cinema and outdoor are also expected to grow this year at 3.6 per cent and 2.4 per cent respectively.

Jerry Buhlmann, chief executive of Aegis Media, said: "Looking at the UK, forecasts have improved with significant signs of recovery in the TV market in particular where trends in the first quarter look positive. While the year ahead remains challenging, theses are encouraging signs."

Buhlmann said: "This early view of future global adspend shows the potential for modest recovery through this year and into 2011 in what looks like being an increasingly benign environment."

Carat is markedly more optimistic in its latest global adspend forecast for 2010, raising its prediction for the UK to 2.9 per cent growth from the 1.4 per cent it forecast in October.

The Aegis-owned agency expects a rise in global adspend of 2.9 per cent, up from its previous prediction of 1 per cent.

UK advertising expenditure is forecast to increase 4.2 per cent in 2011.

All major markets are expected to stabilise including the US at 0.2 per cent, up from -2.6 per cent in Carat's previous forecast.

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